Expected Value Calculator
Find out if a bet is profitable long-term based on your probability estimate.
Expected Value per Bet
+$12.50
+12.50% of stake
This is a +EV bet
If your probability estimate is accurate, this bet will be profitable long-term.
Book's Implied Prob
40.0%
Your Edge
+5.0%
Break-Even Prob
40.0%
Potential Profit
$150.00
Over 100 bets at this stake:
Expected Wins
45
Expected Losses
55
Expected Profit
+$1250.00
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same bet thousands of times. A positive EV (+EV) bet is profitable long-term; a negative EV (-EV) bet loses money over time, regardless of individual outcomes.
The EV Formula
Expected Value formula:
EV = (Win Prob × Profit) - (Lose Prob × Stake)
Example at +150 with 45% win rate:
EV = (0.45 × $150) - (0.55 × $100)
EV = $67.50 - $55.00 = +$12.50
Finding +EV Bets
- •+EV exists when your true probability estimate exceeds the implied probability
- •Line shopping can create +EV when books disagree on odds
- •Opening lines and props often have the most +EV opportunities
- •Be honest about your probability estimates—overconfidence destroys edge
EV vs Actual Results
Important: EV is a long-term concept. You can make a +EV bet and still lose. You can make a -EV bet and still win. Over hundreds or thousands of bets, your actual results will converge toward your expected value. Trust the process.